There are too many equity, metal bulls and dollar bears to see a continuation of the recent move… only my opinion. We are still operating under the influence that Crude oil prices are moving higher but we reserve the right to change our mind on a settlement above $84 in the November contract. We’re suggesting clients remain on the sidelines, but if forced into the market we think a $5-7 move lower will come before a $5-7 move higher. The action in natural gas convinced me to hang on with clients today, but as we’ve stated of late, positions are mixed between November and December and time is not on our side. We do expect a 10% squeeze but from what level?
It appears we will have a strong finish to the week in indices, but on a disappointing jobs number… go figure. We remain short with clients in November ES puts. Perhaps a light trading week will get prices back in line next week, which would mean a lower trade.
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